While Canada still hums along in its honeymoon phase with be¬loved Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, complaining only about the exchange rate and how bad the Habs are this year, just south of the border, some are preparing for war at the polling booth as Americans vote for Presidential candidates.
Does Bernie Have A Chance?
Yes, He Does! Senator Bernie Sand¬ers (I-VT) has been the underdog since the start of this campaign with established mainstream me¬dia sources insinuating that the senator has no chance of winning. This is simply not true. According to fivethirtyeight.com, as of Easter, Senator Sanders is riding the high of a five-state winning streak that increased his total delegate count to 1,037 pledged delegates; former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton currently has 1,267 pledged dele¬gates. Though, with Secretary Clin¬ton currently leading in pledged delegates, and closing in on the 2,383 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, Bernie needs to continue his winning streak mov¬ing forward.
Depending on what news source one follows, the delegate numbers they list may be inflated for the Secretary if the source includes super-delegates: these are elected officials (mostly members of the U.S. Congress) who are not required to vote for a specific candidate. Though most of these people have placed their support behind Clinton, super-delegates can and often will move to whichever candidate is winning as the convention draws nearer. Thus, one should not count super-delegates when assessing who is winning the race.
Media will play a large role in how the Senator performs.
Some sources are predicting he may overtake her in delegates on June 7 (the day that California votes); whether that happens or not is what everyone in the party is waiting to see.
The Empire State
At the moment Wisconsin looks as if it will go in Sanders’ favour, but everyone is really watching the state of New York, which votes on April 19. Hillary Clinton was a Senator from New York, and she still maintains a large amount of sup¬port. Her campaign is also head-quartered in Brooklyn.
If she wins there, chances begin to slim that Bernie Sanders will win the nomination. If Sanders wins, his odds improve greatly. Senator Sanders has a number of tools at his disposal to help clinch a win in New York: money, more money, and sup¬port from younger voters.
The latter is what Secretary Clinton has failed to capture; the young progressive voters who have flocked to Sanders are key components of the Obama coalition that her campaign has tried to align with.
The polling data on New York is slim but the ads are strong and the game is increasingly anyone’s.
While the fight on the Democratic side is more civil and calculated, on the Republican side, the campaign¬ing is an abomination. From the original 17, only 3 remain; John Kasich, Ted Cruz, and of course, Donald Trump.
Serving as somewhat of a moderate candidate in a race of vitriol and right-wing extremism and polarity, Ohio Governor John Kasich is the final — albeit unlikely– hope to wrestle the nomination from Trump and possibly win the election. Governors have terribly in this election cycle. He is the only one left, and though he will likely stay in until the Convention as it stands now, it doesn’t look good. Trump and Cruz have recently been trying to prevent his name from making it on the Convention ballot.
Donald J. Trump
First of all, Donald Trump is indeed running for President. He can be President. He is also winning in his current race— by a lot. And know this: it is his nomination to lose.
Trump has truly come out of no¬where. For years he has talked about mounting a campaign, and finally he has chosen to run again (he ran back in 2000 to no avail).
Trump is what many in the Republican base have wanted. A candidate who they feel “tells it like it is.” The feel part is the key. In what is mind boggling to some, the fact that Trump doesn’t actually tell it like it is has grown his base; as fact-check¬ing website Politifact.com has rated over 78% of his statements as being ranging from Mostly False (16%) to Pants on Fire (20%). But this hasn’t hurt him. As Al-Jazeera reported, many of his supporters criticize the media for what they feel is “political correctness” – which they see as the media not saying what Trump claims and they feel is true about minorities – and more often than not this mutation of “P.C.” ends up being facts that they just don’t want to hear.
If you question a Trump supporter, few can talk about how his policies are better than others; most will respond with a line about “finding out what is going on” and “making America great again.”
Trump never gets into policy details, because he doesn’t put more than a few seconds into a policy. If he has details, he makes them up on the spot. He remains vague and brash, spreading wide untruths, because he doesn’t have to be right and de¬tailed. He wins simply by saying what people want to see and hear.
The one person who remains in vi¬able contention to prevent Trump from clinching the nomination is — in many ways — no better. Ted Cruz, the Senator from Texas, has been gaining large support from much of the establishment in the Republican Party in an effort to avoid a Trump nomination. Senator Cruz, whose campaign is fuelled in large part by staunchly evangelical Christians, has proposed strongly right-wing policies, which draw many parallels to Trump’s. It has often been debated if Ted Cruz is actually worse than Trump. In many senses, Cruz is worse because, un¬like Trump, Cruz believes in his policies; Trump will say whatever is needed.
We are currently in the nomination process for the major parties. These are run by the parties them¬selves and are intended to pick the best candidate to represent the voters of the party. In July, each party will hold a convention where their candidate will be nominated by the delegates they have won. From there, we enter the general election in which these candidates will face off against each other, culminating on Election Day — the Tuesday after the first Monday in November — on November 8, 2016.
For those who may be scared of Trump or Cruz, the polls suggest there is little need to fear. According to RealClearPolitics.com both Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton are currently predicted to have landslide victories if they faced Donald Trump, with 17 and 11-point wins, respectively. Against Ted Cruz, Senator Sanders wins by 10 points on average, whereas Secretary Clinton wins by just shy of 3 points against Senator Cruz.
Nevertheless, if you are an American, the best thing you can do is get your papers in order to go and vote
By Brytan Mendes